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Ok, folks. I'm back. Didya miss me?
I have to say, I'm currently in an unprecedented state of euphoria. A huge Eagles win on Sunday combined with today's Oscar noms has me in a place I've never been before. Only combined nominations for CGJ (past readers understand I can't write his name) and the old bat from "Titanic" (making her 8th consecutive appearance in this e-mail) could have brought me down. Luckily, no such tragedy occurred.
This year, I am confidant enough about my nerdiness to admit that I have seen most of the films nominated for major awards. Yes, this means that my life still revolves around the movies. And by "movie," I do not mean uber crap like "Spanglish" or "Catwoman." (Consider that the only mention either film will get in ANYONE'S Oscar Noms review). Anywho, I will be spending some time at the cineplex this weekend catching up on two movies (really want to see "Hotel Rwanda," feel obligated to check out "Being Julia") and I guess James and I will rent "Collateral" (despite the fact that my dad probably liked it). You are, however, getting the most informed write up from me ever - which means that my picks are personal (again) and likely to be wrong anyway (again).
Ooh - at the bottom of this e-mail there is a link to a wonderful document submitted by another movie freak in my office, Michelle DePass. Michelle provides a brief synopsis of each film nominated in a "major" category, a check box next to each nomination it received, and then whether or not the film is out on video. Thanks Michelle!
SO (finally) - onto the nominations, along with my picks for "Who Will" and "Who Should" win. This year, I'm adding "Second Place" to my predictions so that you can see who just misses Oscar Glory:
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda - "The Aviator"
Thomas Haden Church - "Sideways"
Jamie Foxx - "Collateral"
Morgan Freeman - "Million Dollar Baby"
Clive Owen - "Closer"
Interesting category, here. Two surprises (Alda and Foxx) lead to two snubs for better acted roles by ONE actor, Peter Sarsgaard, in less showy films. I really thought that Sarsgaard should have been nominated for "Kinsey," if not "Garden State," but what the hell do I know?
Until the Globes, this award was basically Church's to lose. Before then, he had picked up almost all of the critics awards….so he must have been stunned when Clive Owen beat him on Globes night. Who? Let’s keep this in perspective - the Globes are decided by the Hollywood FOREIGN press, Owen is British, and it was directed by Mike Nichols, one of those guys that critics love so much for no reason. Sorry swooning ladies….I don't see Mr. Owen winning this one.
That leaves Church fighting with Alda, Foxx, and Freeman. Foxx basically rode buzz for his good work in "Ray" to a second nomination. He's got no shot here, nor should he. Alda turned in a good scene-chewing performance in "The Aviator," but it was too short to win him an Oscar. Plus, I hate the theme song from "M*A*S*H," as should everyone, so I'm guessing he won't get many votes either.
Ultimately, what we have is a two way race. One of the greatest actors of our time vs. the janitor guy from "Wings." Close your eyes, pretend you're lucky enough to be in the Academy (I'll get there some day!) and tell me who YOU would vote for. Now go see the movies, and realize that Freeman out-acts just about anyone, any day, and feel confidant with your selection.
Should Win AND Will Win: Morgan Freeman (and it's LONG overdue. How they passed on his performances from "Driving Miss Daisy" and "Shawshank" is beyond me).
Second Place: Clive Owen (poor Thomas Haden Church. In other news, I have a bathroom he can clean in Cleveland Park. Oh - and who goes by three names these days anyway? That is SO 1999).
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - "The Aviator"
Laura Linney - "Kinsey"
Virginia Madsen - "Sideways"
Sophie Okonedo - "Hotel Rwanda"
Natalie Portman - "Closer"
This is almost always the wild card of the bunch, and this year's list will not disappoint. Four of the nominees actually have a decent shot at taking Oscar home. And none of them are named Renee, Helen or Holly. YEAH! The sole long shot of the bunch is Sophie Okonedo for "Hotel Rwanda." Okonedo is a new actress that no one has heard of in a criminally under viewed thus far (me included, sadly) film. No way, no chance.
The other four are all extremely worthy contenders. Let's elimi-date them one-by-one until our winner is clear. Third runner-up goes to Laura Linney for her role in "Kinsey." This is another film that not enough have seen (notice that Liam Neeson was not nominated for the lead role in this film), though her nomination is well-deserved. Oh, who am I kidding. I love her in almost anything (except the dreadful "Mystic River," which continues to mystify me). Unfortunately, too small of a role in too small a film leaves her hands empty on February 27.
Cate Blanchett, like Linney and Ms. Julianne Moore, is another actress that falls into what should be a Jeopardy! category titled "She hasn't won an Oscar yet?" I'm going to list her as my darks horse this year, as "The Aviator" shocked me on Globes night and there is always a chance that she can take the momentum up to the stage. If she does win, be very wary of a (GULP!) "Aviator" sweep. Dude - that movie sucked! Blanchett, as Katherine Hepburn, was pretty good, if not somewhat mesmorizingly disturbing.
Down to two. I'm going to have to give Natalie Portman the Runner-up Award, with a pretty decent shot at winning it should the Academy decide to go young on us this year. Plus, they do love when a pretty girl like Natalie takes it (almost) all off to pole dance. What’s holding her back is a) this is not a film that will bring home major awards and b) she'll be back in a better film that will. Unfortunately for me, that means no Zellweggeresque speech to dissect on February 28. Natalie - listen very clearly now - I love you very much, but please write a speech in case you win, don't refer to ANYONE except Mr. Portman as your "daddy" this time, eat a little something between now and Oscar night, and for heaven's sake DON'T wear another sack out of the house.
So that leaves us with one. That's right - the early critics awards for the most rewarded film of the year plus a minor backlash from Portman's surprise win at the Globes will give us Academy Award Winner Virginia Madsen. Who would have thunk it? Seriously - imdb her (that's internet movie database for the less webnologically inclined) and you come up with direct to Skinemax clunkers like "Lying in Wait," "After Sex," and "Full Disclosure." One wonders how she kept her clothes on long enough to even audition for "Sideways." Hopefully, her win will bring her the roles that she deserves. She was the light of "Sideways" - the only performance that I actually can understand half of the hype for from that entire film.
Should Win: Laura Linney - gotta give her some recognition.
Will Win: Virginia Madsen, though I won't yell at the television like I did when Renee won last year (and like I did when the soon-to-expand Catherine Zeta Jones did the year before).
Second Place: Natalie Portman
Best Actor
Don Cheadle - "Hotel Rwanda"
Johnny Depp - "Finding Neverland"
Leonardo DiCaprio - 'The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood - "Million Dollar Baby"
Jamie Foxx - "Ray"
First, three performances that many will consider as "snubs" - even though there was little wiggle room in this category to begin with. In order, these supposed snubs are Liam Neeson for "Kinsey," Paul Giamatti for the overrated "Sideways," and Jim Carrey (does the Academy hate him or what?!) for the excellent "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."
*Warning* What I'm about to write might make some people very angry. I wholeheartedly agree that Jamie Foxx should have been nominated, and the whole world knows that he we will win. I thought he was a revelation in "Ray" and going forward I hope that he gets as much screen time in movies that are even better than "Ray" was - unfortunately, the movie just didn't do it for me. I saw it, crossed it off my list, and moved on. Meanwhile, two of the other nominated performances are still stuck in my head, I suspect that one of them will be when I finally get to the movies to see it, and one is a throw away nom that could just bring home the Oscar. Go ahead - guess "who's who" in my last sentence….I think you'll be surprised.
Despite Foxx's sure win, I'll give a shout out to each nominee, even if only in a vain attempt to boost ticket sales and NetFlix rentals. The two performances that continue to ruminate for me are Johnny Depp's in "Finding Neverland" and Clint Eastwood's in "Million Dollar Baby." Maybe it's that I so thoroughly enjoyed each film…I don't know. I've always liked Depp, so I'm not too surprised that I'll be rooting for him on Oscar night. On the flipside, I have always rooted against Eastwood - as an actor, as a director, as a producer, you name it and I wanted him to fail. His performance in "Million Dollar Baby" has made a believer outta me. Neither of them has a prayer against Foxx though.
The performance that I really want to check out is Cheadle's (rhymes with "beetle," for those of you who think it's pronounced 'Che-Odd-La') in "Hotel Rwanda." *SOAPBOX WARNING* After seeing what was portrayed in the Ray Charles biopic, I was struck with one overwhelming thought - there was nothing in "Ray" that I felt needed to be seen (much like the three hours wasted on eccentric millionaire Howard Hughes in "The Aviator"). Maybe I just like my historical epics to be more of a needed lesson - I don't know. It just seems to me that "Hotel Rwanda" is hands-down the most essential and important biographical film of 2004. Paul Rusesabagina may not have been an entertainer like Ray Charles or Howard Hughes, but go ahead and try to convince me that what he did for hundreds of people in Rwanda is less significant. Plus, this is a movie that demands the world's attention to the plight of millions in Africa - hello people - similar situations are going on RIGHT NOW in The Congo and most of us have not a clue. Check www.Oprah.com for more info on what's happening in the Congo and what we can do to help. Ok - sorry to get so serious, but it's important stuff.
That leaves me with the total throw away performance. DiCaprio was Ok in "The Aviator," but the film was little more than an "Academy Awards Event"-type of a film than anything else. It meandered between Hughes' Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (The Academy loves mental illness!), Hughes' stake in Post War Hollywood (The Academy loves movie about itself!) and Hughes' relationship with famous actresses of the time (The Academy loves movies about actors and actresses!). A pathetic attempt to get Scorsese that Best Director award he's always craved. It might work for Scorsese, but I'll be damned if it will work for DiCaprio. Weirdest note - despite spanning several years, no one bothered to make DiCaprio look older than 12 at any point in the movie.
Should Win: Gotta go with Johnny Depp. Can't wait for "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory."
Will Win: Jamie Foxx - I hope his speech is as good as the one he gave at the Globes.
Second Place: Clint Eastwood
Best Actress
Annette Benning - "Being Julia"
Catalina Sandino Moreno - "Maria Full of Grace"
Imelda Staunton - "Vera Drake"
Hilary Swank - "Million Dollar Baby"
Kate Winslet - "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Ah yes - my favorite category! Only one shocker here - and thank God Catalina Sandino Moreno snatched the nomination away from Renee Zelwegger for the ridunkulous "Bridget Jones 2." Anywho, Ms. Moreno turned in a wonderfully understated performance in "Maria Full of Grace." Rent it now. Plus, she's gonna look AWESOME on Oscar night. She's a shoo-in for the "Who's that foreign hottie?" award. But she's not going to win.
Unfortunately, either is Kate Winslet (add her to the aforementioned "She hasn't won an Oscar yet?" list please!). Her best role this year was her supporting work in "Finding Neverland," though I really enjoyed her work in this film as well. Her time, I truly hope, will come. She, like Johnny Depp, churns out excellent performance after excellent performance often when you least expect it. Rent "Sunshine" now and you'll know what I mean - just don't go dying your hair blue like Winslet's character unless you're over 90. Or from Hazleton, PA.
Ladies, gents, and Al, what we have here is a three way race. Annette Benning might just take it all this year for "Being Julia." How ironic that perhaps her main foe this year is Hilary Swank, who came from out of nowhere to win for "Boys Don't Cry," sending the "American Beauty" home Oscar-less. This should be interesting….not many have seen the movie (and those who have give it mixed reviews), but there is a sense that the Academy just wants her to win more than any of the other nominees this year. She could take it - let's all watch carefully to see if the same buzz that ruined her night 6 years ago helps her this time around - but I'm gonna go with one of the other two remaining nominees.
Imelda Staunton has been the Smarty Jones of the bunch. She came from out of nowhere (from the land of stereotypical British character actresses - where do they grow them?) to wow critics and pick up almost every major critics award….until "Million Dollar Baby" came out. She was great in this small film, but like Smarty at the Belmont, there's another horse out there who has eclipsed her in the last leg of Awards Season and will leave Ms. Staunton Oscarless.
That's horse is Hilary Swank. See the movie - her work in "Million Dollar Baby" is unparalleled. And I have to say - I've never been more mystified by an Actress than I am by Hilary Swank. She came from out of nowhere 6 years ago to win Best Actress and has done very little between now and then. The WHAMMO! - another amazing performance. From the very beginning of this film, the viewer knows that he/she is watching something special. THE best acting performance this year (male or female) in arguably the best film may make her a Two-time Academy Award Winner. That's two more than Ms. Julianne Moore!
Will Win and Should Win: Hilary Swank - she's like the Sarah Jessica Parker of the Oscars. Sometimes, she looks great. Sometimes, one wonders who her jockey is.
Second Place: Imelda Staunton - though keep one eye on Annette Benning.
Best Picture
"The Aviator"
"Finding Neverland"
"Million Dollar Baby"
"Ray"
"Sideways"
Look - who actually pays attention after Best Actress anyway? Certainly
not me, so I'll be brief.
If you believe the Golden Globes, this race comes down to two films
- "Sideways" and "The Aviator." If you're realistic,
it comes down to "The Aviator" and "Million Dollar Baby."
If you actually went to the movies this past year, you'd be torn between
"Million Dollar Baby" and "Finding Neverland."
Notice the one film not mentioned - "Ray." No chance here. Also without hope is "Finding Neverland," as it's director (Marc Forster) was not nominated. The move is so good though…only a robot or the Tin Man wouldn't have heart stings a-tugged by this one! Check it out if you can…
That leave three. I'm going to go ahead and rule out "Sideways" - it will win writing awards, maybe Best Supporting for Virginia Madsen, but it's too small and "actory" for the Academy. Now, let's PLEASE get rid of "The Aviator" - I really don't get why anyone nominated this movie (or gave it a Golden Globe).
That leaves one film…."Million Dollar Baby." I can't believe it myself - after hating so much of Eastwood's work, I am pulling for this film in so many categories it's almost ridiculous!
Should Win: "Finding Neverland"
Will Win: "Million Dollar Baby"
Second Place - the Godforsaken "Aviator"
Hard to believe it, but that's all from me for now. Only a little longer than last year's - I promise (I'm a dork - I did a word count and it's only about 200 words longer this time around). I hope you enjoyed my work, and I'll be back in a couple of weeks with my annual Post-Oscar wrap-up. Until then, get yo' butt to the movies! Oh - and GO E-A-G-L-E-S!
Michelle's Handy List of Nominees in word doc format.
One more thing….Happy Birthday Cindy Harrison - bet you thought I'd forget!
Jack N. Martins
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