Jack's Annual Oscar Predictions | See also, Jack Martins' wrap-up of the 76th Annual Academy Awards Ceremony

I'm baaaaaaack.
Wow. By now, I can only hope that most of you have at least glanced at this year's extremely surprising Oscar Nominations. In good news, it does not look like the "Screener Ban Debacle" of 2KTre (that means 2003 Dad) backfired, as many of the nominations went to small independent films. In good news, I can finally say "Grammy winning, Golden Globe winning, and Academy Award Nominated Annie Lennox," as my favorite Diva was nominated for Best Original Song ("Into the West" from LOTR). On the flip side, I cannot say Double (or even single) Academy Award Nominee Scarlett Johansson (I still give a damn about you though!). Oy.

Oscar was all over the place this year. Despite this, I have seen many of the nominated movies and performances and feel qualified to at least discuss the others. Precisely how can I talk about that which I have not seen? Hmmm....I believe the clinical term is Obsessive Compulsive Disorder or "OCD." That's right - my bordering-on-pathetic (no comments on that please) need to know all about Oscar means that I have done my research. I constantly read the newspaper (the elite sources such as Entertainment Weekly and E! Online, and other movie-related publications/websites) and always watch the news (Entertainment Tonight, Ebert & Roeper, Access Hollywood, and other hard-hitting and vital television programming) in order to ensure that I bring you nothing but my best. Enough about me - on to the awards:

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin - "The Cooler"
Benicio Del Toro - "21 Grams"
Djimon Hounsou - "In America"
Tim Robbins - "Mystic River"
Ken Watanabe - "The Last Samurai"

In what is usually the easiest category to predict, we have a clear favorite, a past winner, two huge underdogs, and one surprise (Hounsou rides "In America" buzz to a nomination, knocking Albert Finney from "Big Fish" out of the running). Robbins will take this award for his top notch performance in "Mystic River." And I agree. Sort of. Let's tawk.

Baldwin and Watanabe have a snowball's chance in Fayetteville, NC (hell) of winning this one. No one has seen "The Cooler" and even less people can actually stomach the hairiest Baldwin, so let's carve a line through that name. Watanabe's movie had early buzz, but no nomination for it's star, Tom Cruise, no Best Picture Nomination, and general boredom at the thought of him winning mean no win for him. Down to three. Benicio Del Toro was excellent in "21 Grams" - but early buzz is long gone (and was really for Oscar nominee Naomi Watts and co-star Sean Penn), he's already won (for "Traffic"), and he doesn't bring anything new to this role except some rather ugly tattoos. Down to two. Djimon Hounsou (whose name, FYI, is really hard to spell correctly) was outstanding in "In America." His role is multi-dimensional and unbelievably heart-breaking. Buzz on this movie is high. A legitimate contender though? Unlikely.

The Academy is just dying to give Tim Robbins his due. They don't want to catapult him to the truly elite by rewarding a lead role of his (he's just too darn political) but they recognize his talent and worthiness. Hell, if they felt it was appropriate to give Mira Sorvino an award, surely they will give it Robbins who turned in one excellent performance after another over the past 15 years. As for the movie, to paraphrase the movie critics from "In Living Color," HATED IT. No snaps whatsoever. More on that later....

Should Win: Albert Finney (oh wait, the Academy forgot that "Big Fish" was excellent and Finney deserves an award)
Will Win: Did you pay attention above? Tim Robbins.

Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo - "House of Sand and Fog"
Patricia Clarkson - "Pieces of April"
Marcia Gay Harden - "Mystic River"
Holly Hunter - "Thirteen"
Renee Zellwegger - "Cold Mountain"

If there's one thing I've learned over the course of the past couple of years, it's that the Academy just can't get enough of Renee Zellwegger. Nomination after nomination (pill after pill), yet still no win for her. Is this the year for her? Let's dissect, one by one.

Before we do that, where the hell is Scarlett Johansson? Hello? Was Bill Murray acting by himself in "Lost in Translation?" Didn't think so. Ooh - and are James and I the only people who saw Hope Davis in "American Splendor" or what? Shame on you, Academy, for you have once again ignored some of the best. In good news though, we have two refreshing nominees to help us choke down those losses. These nominees are Shohreh Aghdashloo (typing tip - cutting and pasting means you only have to type hard names once. Wheee!) and Patricia Clarkson. Though I have not seen or heard much about Aghdashloo's (control "c", control "v" OR use your mouse!) performance, she will not win. No one has heard of her before this, no one will hear from her again - the Academy loves to slip in one foreign and unknown actress a year, and this was her turn. Buh. Bye.

Clarkson, on the other hand, has been coming on strong since her Emmy-winning and recurring role on "Six Feet Under" (best show ever - take that "Sopranos") and I hope that her career is just starting to flourish. Performances in little seen indies like last year's "Far From Heaven," this year's "Station Agent" (great film) and now "Pieces of April" are bringing her character-actress acclaim that is well deserved. Plus, I'm a little jealous (though not jealous enough to root against her) that she got to work so closely with television's Katie Holmes (the "Creek") while filming this role. Too bad she's not going to win - this nomination is her reward for her hard work over the past two years or so. Maybe next time.

Not going to spend too much time on Marcia Gay Harden, though she did really earn her second nomination (she previously won for putting up with evil Ed Harris in "Pollock"). She and Robbins were just about the only redeemable thing in "Mystic River." Holly Hunter, who I like to refer to as "Mushmouth" because she continues her refusal to alliterate and annunciate when speaking, also returns to the Nominee List. As she would say, "shishter ain't gotta prayr" - the real star of "Thirteen" is the unnominated Evan Rachel Wood. Sit down Mushmouth, and please don't resurrect the nasty hair 'stensions that you wore last weekend to the Golden Globes. Chewbacca called - he needs them back ASAP.

That leaves us with one. That's right folks - Renee Zellwegger, as of February 29, 2004, will go by the moniker "Academy Award Winner Renee Zellwegger." Now don't kill me for writing this, but I think she deserves it (though not as much as my personal pick). STILL can't stand her, still think she should take a cue from Radiohead and open up her eyes, still think she looks better now that she has put on some pounds for "Bridget Jones Diary 2 - Double the Pathetic Diatribes, Half the Hilarity," and still think she lives in a "Doctor-prescribed" fantasy world. Despite this, I rather enjoyed her work in "Cold Mountain." It took a lot for me to say that - don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

Should Win - Patricia Clarkson
Will Win - Renee Zellwegger, hands down

Best Actor
Johnny Depp "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl"
Ben Kingsley - "House of Sand and Fog"
Jude Law - "Cold Mountain"
Bill Murray - "Lost in Translation"
Sean Penn - "Mystic River"

So happy am I that two were left out (Jack Nicholson - "Something's Gotta Give" and Tom Cruise - "The Last Samurai") that I'm not even going to complain for one second about Depp and Law slipping into this group. Makes me want to sing the theme song to "21 Jumpstreet" all day long (21 JUMP! 21 Juuuuump Streeeet). Besides - they appear to be riding the same snowball as Supporting Nominees Alec Baldwin and Ken Watanabe, and NBC 4's Super Wicked Cool Doppler FX 3-D "First to Know" Radar still predicts it will land in Fayetteville, NC. Both were good in their respective movies (though Depp's Keith Richards meets drag queen meets Al Claxton nomination for a movie based on a Disney ride is a HUGE shock). One (Law) will look good at the big show while the other will look horrific (Depp), so both will be fun to see on the Red Carpet. Neither will win. Ok - one complaint - Peter Dinklage was deserving for his work in "The Station Agent" - rent it when it comes out, and you'll know why.

Joining Depp and Law in the "Just happy to be nominated" ranks is past winner Ben Kingsley. I've heard raves about his performance, but not enough people have seen it and those who have consider it Jennifer Connelly's vehicle, not his. In the end, what we have here is a two man race.

In the lead, so far, is Sean Penn. Still trying to figure out why. Don't get me wrong - I normally LOVE his work. However, this movie sucked, he overacted throughout, and had a horrid Boston accent that came and went throughout the movie. Didn't buy his performance at all. He claims to hate awards (still bitter about not having won in the past) and needs to stay out of Iraq (you are an actor, my friend, not a journalist. No one wants to see Dan Rather in a dramatic role, so leave the news to competent sources like Peter Jennings). Can you guess who I'm gunning for? That's right - BILL MURRAY. Never thought I would write that, but my vote (why, oh why, don't they let me vote?) goes to Mr. Murray. His work in "Lost in Translation" was a revelation as far as I'm concerned. Besides, who better than Bill to be the first former SNL cast member to win an Academy Award? Victoria Jackson?

Should Win - Bill Murray
Will Win - Sean Penn

Best Actress (this damn e-mail is too long)
Keisha Castle-Hughes - "Whale Rider"
Diane Keaton - "Something's Gotta Give"
Samantha Morton - "In America"
Charlize Theron - "Monster"
Naomi Watts - "21 Grams"

Hmmm...two nominees from the greater Australia/New Zealand region of the world? Check. One of them Naomi Watts? Check. Nicole Kidman the other? NO? What?

That's right - somehow, one of this year's leading contenders, and last year's winner, was left off the list. Me thinks Nicole's Figure Skater gone-demented look from this year's Golden Globes shall be bringing her bad luck (and bad karma) for a long time to come. Triple Salchow-ing into the nominee list was Keisha Castle-Hughes. Keisha Castle-Who? Well, if you don't know who she is now, you have only yourself to blame. She was AMAZING in "Whale Rider" - THE "feel-good" movie of the year. Rent it now (it's out on DVD) and you'll understand. I challenge you to dislike it and/or dismiss her performance as unworthy. Too bad she'll be everyone's fifth choice on the ballot.

Fourth choice will be Samantha Morton from "In America." She barely says anything in this movie - even the average resident of Carlisle, PA could count her lines, as they surely don't exceed 22 in the whole movie (5 for each hand, 6 for each foot). She is good, though this movie belonged to others (primarily Hounsou and the two girls who play her daughters in this movie).

Number three choice will likely be Naomi Watts from "21 Grams" for a good performance as a mother who loses her family as a result of a horrific accident. Going for her are the "one great scene" that Academy members fall for ever so often and the small fact that she's a complete hottie. Against her? One uneven performance this year ("Le Divorce" anyone?) and buzz for this movie is dying a slow, drawn out death (much like the pacing (at times) of the very movie itself).

Again, I say this as a one on one battle. Diane or Charlize? Hmmmm....
I just don't see Diane Keaton getting this. Yes, we all know that the "Something that Had to Give" for her was her clothing. Big woo - naked older actresses (Kathy Bates, "About Schmidt") are SO 2002. Plus, though she looks great right now, someone needs to help her out a little in the clothing department. She looked like a horrid blend of Prince and Madonna (circa "Like a Virgin") at the Globes last weekend. Yikes - did you rush over from your first communion? Anywho, she's got a good shot, but I don't think it's going to happen.

What will, and should, happen is Charlize Theron's win for "Monster." All she needs to do is continue riding the "I had no idea she had that in her buzz" and this award is hers. Saw the movie a couple of weeks ago, and was blown away by her performance. I am fearing the "they only liked her because she is beautiful and made herself ugly" backlash, and this will take some votes away from her. I can't believe, however, that anyone who watches this will even comment on how she looked. From the first scene, the viewer forgets the weight gain and makeup work and is captivated by the manner in which Theron captures every aspect of this country's first known female serial killer. The fact that I had compassion for her, despite her despicable acts of violence, stunned me. See it. Believe it. Vote for her.

Should Win - Charlize Theron
Will Win - Charlize Theron

Best Picture (I'm keeping this one REALLY brief)
"LOTR" - sick of typing the whole damn thing out, year after year
"Lost In Translation"
"Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"
"Mystic River"
"Seabiscuit"

"LOTR" - no questions asked, will win this award. I have never professed to be a fan (or even fully understand) these movies, but this one was great. Upon reflection, I can understand how difficult it must have been to keep the geeks (fervent LOTR fans like my sisters) happy while generating interest in the larger population of non-geek movie goers at the same time. Plus - and this is the best news - IT FINALLY ENDED. Though I'll never get those precious ten hours back (which I could have used to win several gold medals on my GameCube's "2002 Winter Olympic Games" - I am proud to write that I am a multiple gold medal winner in Women's Moguls AND Men's Curling), in the end they were worth it. As for the other movies, "Mystic River" will run a close second (while managing to both suck and blow at the same time - a rare cinematic feat only accomplished by past winner "Titanic") with "Lost in Translation" a distant (and undeserving - should be in second) third. "Seabiscuit" was entertaining, but forgotten by now. "Master and Commander" sounds like one of those weird board games (Risk, Axis and Allies) that I never got into - you know, where you have to roll dice to take over countries and dominate the world. Your basic dorky precursor to D&D. I'm sure it's well done, but gimme a break.

Should Win - "LOTR"
Will Win - "LOTR"

That's all (I know - so brief as usual) for now folks. Hope you enjoyed my lengthy diatribe. Luckily, we closed early today due to bad weather, so I have been able to craft this during the day instead of waiting until the end of the day to start. See you on March 1. Now go to see some of these movies, and make me proud!

Jack Martins